"Who’s next? Amid the wave of rebellion and revolution sweeping across North Africa, investors and autocrats are spending a lot more time these days looking over their shoulders.
To that end I’ve produced an index of likely candidates for (un)civil upheaval on the basis of three equally-weighted criteria: social unfairness; propensity to revolt; and a trigger, in this case the share that food makes up as a percentage of household final expenditure."
The author uses three different data sources for his unfairness index, all of which are useful for other purposes as well:
1) Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index
3) The Gini Index, which measures the degree of inequality in the distribution of family income in a country — Mattich uses the figures in the latest CIA World Factbook
For determining propensity to revolt, Mattich used another three indicators: median age, unemployment rate and GDP per capita. He doesn’t cite his sources but all are available from databases like UNdata, EIU Country Data and the OECD iLibrary.
The final element, the trigger, was derived from the U.S. FDA’s Global Food Security program.
Take a look at the results!